But Mauer also offers a less grim hypothesis: drug courts, locally administered programs that divert offenders into treatment rather than incarceration, could be having an impact on drug-related crime, especially in urban communities of color. The Sentencing Project has also released an analysis of drug court programs across the country revealing that while it's difficult to assess overall effectiveness, the model could lay a foundation for saner drug policies:

After two decades of implementation, research shows that many drug courts reduce recidivism and save taxpayer dollars. Evidence from a number of studies (collecting data from between 1 and 95 drug courts) shows that drug court graduates are rearrested less than comparison groups The reduction in rearrest rates is the primary contributor to cost-savings for the majority of reporting drug courts.

There will always be cyclical arguments for “getting tough” on criminals through police and prisons. And it should be noted that Blacks are still disproportionately impacted by drug-war incarceration. But ironically, the demographic shift in the offender population, toward a more realistic reflection of the country as a whole, might raise consciousness about inherently irrational crime policies. As the collateral consequences creep beyond communities that are easy to vilify and silence, perhaps the political establishment will have a harder time justifying its drug war.

Image: San Francisco Chronicle, Lacy Atkins